The study is an adaptation of the conventional state-dependent queuing theory to evaluate the performance of key counterterrorism (CT) strategies in the Nigeria CT environment. It analysed the use of coercive measures (Sticks), non-coercive/conciliatory strategies (Carrots), covert intelligence agents driven syndromnized intelligence optimizing pseudo-terrorists (SIOP) agents), as well as their combined variants. The model incorporates state transitions to capture the dynamic nature of terrorist recruitment processes in Nigeria CT environment. The performance measures are adapted from conventional queue frameworks to assess the effectiveness of these CT strategies in mitigating terrorist threats. The results show the importance of maximizing interdiction rate, discrimination rate, system efficiency, and intelligence integration while minimizing system unfairness factors, response time, and queue length for optimal CT operations. The study also highlights the exploitation of the positive correlation that exist between the Stick and Carrot strategies, as well as their intelligence-driven variants, to execute an enhanced, balanced and coordinated intelligence-driven terrorists interdiction strategies. Therefore, study suggests leveraging viable Carrots instruments with credible Sticks option and SIOP agents in a CT environment, for enhanced credibility and sufficiency of intelligence gatherings as well as covert supervision of terrorists' compliance to Carrots instruments in CT environment, and hence optimizing CT efforts.
Counter-terrorism strategies, SIOP agents, Sticks and Carrots CT strategies, Terrorists’ recruitment processes, performance measure
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