Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model

Confidence I. Nwokedi; Frederick A. Omoruyi | Chukwuenyem E. Onyenekwe; Victor C. Chukwunenye

Title:
Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model

Authors:
Victor C. Chukwunenye | Confidence I. Nwokedi | Frederick A. Omoruyi | Chukwuenyem E. Onyenekwe

Cite This Article :

Victor C. Chukwunenye | Confidence I. Nwokedi | Frederick A. Omoruyi | Chukwuenyem E. Onyenekwe "Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-8 | Issue-1, February 2024, pp.1056-1060, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd64560.pdf

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Abstract :
This study employed time series analysis to forecast rainfall data obtained from Anambra State obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Using SPSS's Time Series Expert Modeler, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model was identified as the most suitable for the dataset. The model adequately explained variations in rainfall and passes validation tests, including the Ljung-Box test. A 12–month forecast from September 2023 to August 2024 was conducted, and the results are discussed. While the Time Series Expert Modeler may not always provide optimal models, it proves effective in this analysis. Manual model exploration remains valuable if the automated approach fails to meet criteria.

Keywords :
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Publication Details:

Unique Identification Number : IJTSRD64560

Published In : Volume-8 | Issue-1, February 2024

Page Number(s) : 1056-1060

Publisher Name : IJTSRD | www.ijtsrd.com | E-ISSN 2456-6470

Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development Journal. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

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