Modeling and Analysis of Influenza A H1N1 Outbreaks in India

Sathya Velu R; Dr. Madhu B | Sahana S | Sowmyavalli R |Bibin John | Dr. Balasubramanian S; Stavelin Abhinandithe K

Stavelin Abhinandithe K | Sathya Velu R | Dr. Madhu B | Sahana S | Sowmyavalli R |Bibin John | Dr. Balasubramanian S "Modeling and Analysis of Influenza A H1N1 Outbreaks in India" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-3, April 2021, pp.1166-1170, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd39862.pdf

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Abstract :
Influenza A (H1N1) incidence in India, which is a highly contagious acute respiratory disease in humans caused by type A influenza virus. This study employs retrospective comparative study of the data from National Centre for Disease Control (CDC) yearly reports from April-2010 to April-2019. The case fatality rates of Influenza A (H1N1) incidence in India was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for Influenza A (H1N1) surveillance. Clearly from the study, lack of rainfall spread the virus more efficiently and Maharashtra stood first in total number of cases and deaths of Influenza A(H1N1) whereas Lakshadweep had no signs of disease. Further, number of Cases were reported in the year 2015 (i.e. 28%) and 25% of cases have been reported in 2017 when compared to ten years data. (ARIMA) (2, 1, 3) model was selected for its minimum value of normalized BIC, MAPE and good R-Square among all other models. The model forecasted the decrease in case fatality rate of Influenza A H1N1 for next 10years. Thus, results indicate that, ARIMA models provide a means to better understand Influenza A (H1N1) incidence yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Keywords :
ARIMA, case fatality rate (CFR), contagious, forecasts, Influenza A (H1N1), predictive tool

Publication Details:

Unique Identification Number : IJTSRD39862

Published In : Volume-5 | Issue-3, April 2021

Page Number(s) : 1166-1170

Publisher Name : IJTSRD | www.ijtsrd.com | E-ISSN 2456-6470

Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development Journal. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

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