Glaciers, which occupy about 6% of the territory of Tajikistan, significantly affect the formation of runoff. Under the conditions of climate change (+1.5°), which has been occurring over the past 100 years, directly affecting the volume of glaciers - sources of food and water content of rivers, up to 10-20% feeding the flow of large rivers, and in dry and hot years, the contribution of glaciers to the water resources of individual rivers in the summer can reach up to 70%, leading to their annual melting. It is expected that the effects of climate change, leading to the degradation of glaciation, on water resources will have a cumulative effect on many sectors of the economy, including agriculture (increased demand for irrigation or forestry). One of the main sectors of the Tajik economy that is vulnerable to climate change is agriculture. Its economic, social and political features determine the potential for adaptation to climate change and, as a result, are the main factors determining the state of the economy, focused mainly on agriculture. A significant source of livelihood for the rural population, remote mountainous areas of Tajikistan, is agro-pastoral farming. At the same time, the bulk of the population is oriented towards subsistence farming, which actually provides for their need for food. At the same time, the area of arable land is limited here, and the productivity of the agricultural sector is very low. It should be noted that in of the country's land area is Tajikistan, in general, less than 7% suitable for growing crops. Water, despite the abundance of water resources in the country, remains the main problem for farmers in the mountainous areas of Tajikistan. It should be noted that in the Eastern Pamirs, due to the high altitudes and arid climate, animal husbandry is the only type of agriculture, and the western part of the Pamirs is characterized by the presence of conditions for growing on the coastal part of the rivers, using irrigation, wheat, potatoes, tomatoes and cucumbers. Based on the analysis and monitoring of existing fund materials, in this work, the choice of the research object was made - the basin of the lower left tributaries of the Muksu River (the left tributary of the Surkhob River), a glacier (No. 815) located on the territory of the Lakhsh district, the Republic of Tajikistan. Research by Hugonnet R. (using the geodetic method) established that due to the decrease in the surface of the glacier in the middle part and the increase in its height in the tongue part, as well as taking into account its active downward movement, the structure of the object is destroyed, which leads to active degradation of the glacier (No. 815). At the same time, it was revealed that the advance of the frontal part of the glacier was 130 meters. Analysis and assessment of the state of irrigated lands located in the study area was carried out by calculating vegetation indices, for example, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) - the implementation and monitoring of changes in the nature of vegetation, the degree of its degradation, etc. Obtaining information about vegetation and calculating the vegetation index NDVI is implemented using data from satellite images Landsat 5-7 and Sentinel 2 In particular, based on the study of the dynamics of the area of agricultural land, it was found that not only the sown area has changed, but both the sowing cycle and the timing of harvesting have also been violated. Thus, the main factors for ensuring the stable development of the agricultural sector in mountainous areas are the development of measures to adapt to climate change, the improvement and use of water-saving irrigation technologies, as well as the search for alternative water sources.
Tajikistan, glaciers, degradation, climate change, agriculture, GIS technology, remote sensing, vegetation index, adaptation
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